Porter's Five Forces (1979) frames competitive intelligence: threat of new entrants, bargaining power of buyers/suppliers, threat of substitutes, competitive rivalry. Systematic intelligence gathering on each force is the foundation of strategic positioning and sustainable advantage.

Weick (1995): sensemaking is retrospective — we construct meaning from equivocal information by noticing, bracketing, and connecting cues. Intelligence work is fundamentally sensemaking: turning raw signals into coherent narratives that enable coordinated action.

The classic intelligence cycle (CIA, 1947): Planning → Collection → Processing → Analysis → Dissemination → Feedback. The cycle is iterative, not linear. Most intelligence failures occur at the analysis stage — not from lack of data, but from cognitive biases in interpretation.

Ansoff (1975) introduced strategic surprise and weak signal management. Weak signals are ambiguous, incomplete early indicators of emerging discontinuities. Building a system to capture and amplify weak signals is 10–20× more valuable than monitoring strong, already-priced signals.

Heuer (1999, CIA): ACH is a structured analytical technique that lists all hypotheses, gathers evidence for each, and looks for evidence that DISPROVES alternatives — not confirms. The least-disproven hypothesis wins. Counters confirmation bias, the most common intelligence failure mode.

Howard Marks (2011): first-order thinking is simple cause-and-effect. Second-order thinking asks "and then what?" — the consequences of consequences. Superior intelligence analysis always thinks at least two moves ahead. Most market participants are first-order thinkers.